I love to hear gossip. You can find me on Twitter here.
I noticed you and your colleague Joe Weisenthal have been doing podcasts on market bubbles. I quite enjoyed the one you two did on Tulipmania when you brought in that Austrian-school economist. Given what you two have been talking about bubbles, I’d like to share something with you.
You’ve heard of the Shiller CAPE ratio. After making a small but meaningful adjustment (mean vs. median) to the Shiller CAPE ratio, I show all 5 major U.S. stock market bubbles reach valuations in the 90th-plus percentile looking back 135 years. I also showed that the current valuation is smack-dab in the very most expensive decile. If you’re interested in what I wrote, then you can find it here on my firm’s LinkedIn page –> https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6315962150405885952.
Let me know if you have any questions. I’d be pleased to share my thinking with you.
Howard Ma, CFA
Hello, I’ve enjoyed your Middle Eastern Summary. Thank you and well done!
What I would like to see in the following editions:
1. Supply&Demand trends in ME countries. Any deficits or oversupply?
2. Security situation. Internal/Maritime?
3. New business laws?
4. IPOs, M&A?
5. Reforms? Major changes in anything?
Just saw you are based in Abu Dhabi. On my way from Bangkok to Dubai-I’ll need to read the Dubai book. Have you read “Naked Money”? Fascinating regarding brexit, bitcoin etc. it seems like the $ or S&P is the best store of value. Love your posts.
I enjoyed this piece very much
and plan to incorporate some of it in my research on OPEC’s actions
(working paper here: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44064.0)
My question is whether you have a more precise date range for your estimated oil costs decline – you mention “since 2014”. Thanks!
Thank you for covering my working paper on August 4, 2016. Feel free to contact me if you have any comments or if you want to follow up on the topic.
It is always a pleasure to read your pieces.
I came across this article penned by you on bloomberg:
I was wondering if you could please link me to the full Morgan Stanley report?
Hi Tracy – sorry I only have e-mail and can’t figure out how else to contact you.
There is an error in the article “164 year-old idea……” in Bloomberg. Figure 25 has separate scales for the two lines. 3 of the 4 numbers you quote from the chart are incorrect. Dark line uses the right hand scale per according to the legend.
Your paragraph should read: “high-quality jobs once made up more than 45 (not 42) percent of total U.S. employment, they’ve since drifted down to less than 44 (not 38) percent. Low-quality work, meanwhile, has risen from less than 37 (correct) percent to now account for more 42 (not 45) percent.
Hardly your fault — that is a poorly constructed graph. Authors trying too hard to make a point by having the lines cross when they really don’t.
Regarding peer to peer and lending club it seems clear that institutional investors and the pressure from the iPo were the problem. If lending club had just stayed private and away from NYC and closer to their published addresses in CA and DE this whole mess could have been avoided. Peer to peer is fine- Jefferies is just not my peer.
Furthermore- it seems that I was at the very least misled regarding lending club when I read item 7 in the lending agreement on lending clubs website limiting investment at 5
Million dollars. ‘Ahh’ I though, so this is how they keep it boutique. But I guess that limit just applies to my peers and me. I most readily recognize my peers by two things. We don’t live in NYC and we work for a living.
Ahh. Well. Who was I to expect transparency?
It would be interesting to know what portion of loans are institutionally financed and how big of a portion are held by ‘retail’ individuals like me.
Thanks for trying to shed some light on this topic.
Lisa in Spring, Texas
Hi Tracy, as a financial advisor about to lose a client to Stanford’s firm, I did a very preliminary due deligence on his firm by going to finra’s website. Turned out that they had recently been fined around $5,000 or 10,000, seemingly no big deal, right? Only it was for “insufficient” capitalization. Allen Stamford was meanwhile running around in a private jet and cruising around in a yacht.
It was too incongruent in my judgement, and fortunately the client heeded my advice, now being forever grateful
It is shocking that folks don’t do due deligence before handing over their money.
Similarly, Madorf was an easy catch: simply, who was custodian for the assets he presumably was investing in?
Hi Tracy — Might you drop me an email please? I don’t have your email address and want to send you an invitation to a geeky academic gathering.
Congratulations on the new gig.
Word has it.. Bloomberg’s #1
Thank you for the informative article today in Bloomberg on EM debt.
Please note you misspell Colombia, my dear country.
Thank you Juan, I have fixed this and my apologies! By the way, I have been thinking of visiting Colombia (I was going to go last year, but ended up in Guatemala instead). Where would you recommend visiting?
visit kenya. i just saw you tweeted about it a few hours ago. lemme know if you think about coming–i’ll suggest a few spots.
by the way, i find financial crisis foresight (of the peter schiff kind) much more interesting than hindsight. everyone can theorise after the fact but to break it down before it happens…that’s genius.
Cartagena and Medellin are a Must!
Dear Mrs. Alloway,
Thank you very much for your great surveillance of the “GLOBAL BOND & CREDIT MARKETS” (and much more) and your precise and balanced realtime analysis on BloombergTV!
It’s always a pleasure to listening to you and seeing you on this great information channel.
With kind regards from Winterthur (SWITZERLAND),
Gion Reto Capaul
The Founder of Bondholder Value
Sorry for contacting you this way, but I am in China and don’t have access to Twitter.
My name is Robert Bonomo and I write f0r Unz Review. I came across your work researching an article on the Greek crisis, and I was hoping you could help me with something. The ECB bailout of Greece was focused on bailing out the French and German banks that held the Greek debt, but what I am trying to research is the actual mechanics behind those bond purchases. European banks can borrow to buy EU bonds without any reserve requirements, my question is how do they do this? What are the actual mechanics of those bond purchases? Is it similar to the mechanics of mortgages or is it completely different? There is very, very little written about this, at least as far as I can discern.
Would you know of any good resources that could explain how a EU bank would go about borrowing money to buy those bonds?
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Good morning, Tracy!
My name is Joshua Reback, and I am the online marketing assistant for Peerform, a peer-to-peer lending company based in New York City. I really appreciated your recent article about Lending Club and its just-launched deal with Google. Working in the peer-to-peer lending industry is very exciting, and we are happy that it is making significant strides at the beginning of 2015.
I see that aside from this article, some of your other work also covers topics related to the P2P sector. Our Chairman of the Board, Gregg Schoenberg, is currently taking interviews, and I was wondering if you would be interested in highlighting our company in one of your upcoming articles.
Please feel free to browse our website and learn more about who we are at https://www.peerform.com/. We are also open to ideas about other ways that we can collaborate in the future.
Looking forward to hearing back from you, and have a great rest of your day!
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